I will not predict the future price of assets for you.

Most of the content of this post is rather basic, but I still need to clear up some basic misconceptions and pitfalls regarding whether one should invest in something such as Circcash.

Please do not ask me how much do I think that Circcash or Bitcoin or anything else will be in 1 year or 5 years. I am not going to give any such predictions at all. Furthermore, please do not trust anyone who makes such prediction, and do not follow them. If anyone makes such predictions about the Bitcoin market and expects you to take them seriously, then that person is clearly incredibly dishonest, and if you listen to that entity, then you are a sucker.

Markets are inherently unpredictable in the sense that you cannot predict whether the price will go up or down UNLESS you have some inside information or are personally manipulating the market (or just get lucky or are naturally very good which is unlikely). The reason is that if people know that the price of an asset is going to go up, then people would have already bought that asset, and that asset would already be at a higher price. Furthermore, if people already know that the price of an asset is going to go down, then that asset would already be at a lower price.

Not only does logic dictate that one cannot predict a market such as the Bitcoin market to make a profit, but scientific studies also indicate that it is nearly impossible to make a profit predicting markets and trading assets.

Trying to make a profit by trading assets is just as risky as going to casinos and gambling and it is not even fun so you get all the risks of gambling without the fun and coolness. The game of trading assets is a zero-sum game. This means that the expected value of your earnings is zero. But if you include fees and the amount of money you could have been making doing meaningful work instead of trying to play the market (trying to play the market is boring), then the expected value of your earnings is negative.

Another reason why you should ask me if I think the price of Circcash will go up or down is because I clearly own a lot of CIRCs, and you should not ask a founder of a cryptocurrency whether the price of that cryptocurrency will actually go up or not. I am clearly biased in favor of Circcash (of course, I will not let my biases cloud my judgment, so I will simply not give you any future prediction for the value of Circcash at all; I will instead educate you about Circcash so that you understand why Circcash is important). It is generally not a good rule to ask a biased entity to give a prediction about the future price of an asset.

I am not a financial advisor (the other Joseph Van Name is the financial advisor but I have no relation to him), and I do not give financial advice ever. If you ask me if I think the price of Circcash or Bitcoin will go up or down, then I will just assume that you have no clue how markets work and that you are a greedy slimy anti-intellectual, and I will tell you that you cannot predict this.

What you should do instead?

If you are looking to invest in Circcash (or something similar), the best thing you can do is educate yourself about Circcash. I promise that it is really interesting.

Read the Bitcoin whitepaper if you have not done so already (this applies to anyone investing into any cryptocurrency). If you have not read and understood the Bitcoin whitepaper, you have no business investing into ANY cryptocurrency whatsoever.

Learn about reversible gates and reversible circuits, linear feedback shift registers (which depend on primitive polynomials over finite fields), and reversible cellular automata. Even using a reversible cellular automata simulator can inform you quite a bit about reversible computation. Understand how SHA-256 works. Play Bennett’s pebble game (which is really easy and fun). Write a few programs in the reversible programming language Janus. Read the recent work on reversible computation by Ralph Merkle. Read the old papers on reversible computation by Charles Bennett. Learn about quantum computation and how reversible computation relates to quantum computation (if you know some linear algebra and understand tensor products and reversible computation, the basics of quantum computation and quantum information theory are quite reasonable).

By doing these things, not only will you understand Circcash well enough to make an informed decision as to whether you want to invest in it or not, but you will also gain meaningful knowledge and skills. You will know about the future of computation. Learning about reversible computation is certainly more fruitful than trying to learn about how to play the markets.

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